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November 23, 2015 1. Trust in government: 1958-2015 The public’s trust in the federal government continues to be at historically low levels. Only 19% of Americans today say they can trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” (3%) or “most of the time” (16%).
Fewer than three-in-ten Americans have expressed trust in the federal government in every major national poll conducted since July 2007 – the longest period of low trust in government in more than 50 years. In 1958, when the American National Election Study first asked this question, 73% said they could trust the government just about always or most of the time. The erosion of public trust in government began in the 1960s. The share saying they could trust the federal government to do the right thing nearly always or most of the time reached an all-time high of 77% in 1964. Within a decade – a period that included the Vietnam War, civil unrest and the Watergate scandal – trust had fallen by more than half, to 36%. By the end of the 1970s, only about a quarter of Americans felt that they could trust the government at least most of the time. Trust in government rebounded in the 1980s before falling in the early to mid-1990s.
But as the economy boomed in the late 1990s, confidence in government increased. And in 2001, the 9/11 terror attacks on the United States transformed public attitudes – including trust in government. In early October 2001, a month after the attacks, 60% said they could trust the government, roughly double the share earlier that year and the highest percentage expressing trust in government in more than 40 years.
But the rise in government trust was short-lived – by the summer of 2002, the share saying they could trust the government had tumbled 22 percentage points. Amid the war in Iraq and economic uncertainty at home, trust in government continued to decline. By July 2007, trust had fallen to 24%.
Since then, the share saying they can trust the federal government has generally fluctuated in a narrow range, between 20% and 25%. Trust in government and partisanship Currently, 26% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say they can trust the federal government nearly always or most of the time, compared with 11% of Republicans and Republican leaners. Since Barack Obama took office in 2009, higher shares of Democrats than Republicans have expressed trust in government. Since the 1970s, trust in government has been consistently higher among members of the party that controls the White House than among the opposition party. However, Republicans are much more reactive than Democrats to changes in political power. Republicans express much higher levels of trust during Republican than during Democratic presidencies, while Democrats’ attitudes tend to be more consistent, regardless of which party controls the White House.
During the eight years of George W. Bush’s presidency, 47% of Republicans, on average, said they could trust the federal government just about always or most of the time. During Obama’s presidency, average trust among Republicans has fallen to 13% – by far the lowest level of average trust among either party during any administration dating back to the 1960s. Average trust among Democrats, by contrast, has remained more stable throughout the George W. Bush and Obama years. During the Obama administration, trust among Democrats has averaged 29%, compared with 28% during the Bush administration. Trust in government – among the public overall, and among both Republicans and Democrats – was much higher during Bush’s first term than his second.
Among the public, trust on average fell from 43% in Bush’s first term, which included the post-9/11 spike in trust, to 29% in his second. The decline came among both Republicans, whose average trust declined from 54% to 41%, and Democrats (35% to 21%). While the falloff in Republican trust in government between the Bush and Obama administrations has been striking, it continues a pattern that has persisted for decades. During Ronald Reagan’s two terms, an average of 52% of Republicans expressed trust in government, and 43% did so during George H.W. Bush’s single term. This compares with 26% average trust among Republicans during Jimmy Carter’s presidency and 25% during Bill Clinton’s.